They really shouldn’t let me out. Boring rainy days potting in the greenhouse tend to bring on entertaining thoughts and scenarios. Only in this case the scenarios do not have a very entertaining conclusion.
I offer you these thought associations.
1. Airplanes do not disappear, they have to be somewhere.
2.The communication systems were turned off before the last vocal communication with Malaysia, which presupposes that the plane was being hijacked/misappropriated for another purpose.
3. This abstraction was done by someone who not only could fly but was experienced and had done their homework as to who had their radars on continually. Not all countries maintain their systems on a 24 hour basis because of cost. Not all countries probably even have a system! Fancy Bangladesh having one? Probably think a large dish is a communal wok! Thus the plane slips through the system a la fag paper style to its ultimate destination.
4. Unfortunately for the malefactors when they turned off all systems they were not to know that the engine ‘ping’ system had a fail-safe back up system that could not be turned off from inside the aircraft, or so we are lead to believe. This system evidently sends no data but just the info that it is alive and kicking.
5. The British company that manages this info for the engine manufacturers are able to interpret this data correlated with time and fuel capacity to produce a projected arc of likely routes. One North to the ‘stans and the other South to the left of Australia
6. On examining a map I note that the distance from the ‘stans to New York is roughly give or take 7000 miles according to departure location. Anywhere from the Southern arc is 10,000 miles to New York and thus out of range to the 777 ER which is 8884 miles fully fueled
7. Now then, would you really go to the trouble of stealing one of the most long distance planes in the world from an area that has patchy radar and communications and least satellite cover to ditch it in the ocean? Personally I think not! And then go to the trouble of turning off the communication systems? If all you wanted to achieve was the death of a measly 230 people you would want the world to know about it and have the full sound track on public display!.
8. Right you have gone to great trouble and expense to steal a plane for what purpose? Not exactly a toy one is going to be able to keep for any length of time is it? The first time it emerges will be the one and only time you are going to be able to use it, definitely a one way trip! What better than a flying bomb knowing the protagonists likely to have effected its misappropriation in the first place!!!
9. Long gone are the days that an unidentified plane could/would be able to approach a capital city of the West without challenge. I suspect it would be shot down, or at least I hope it would! The only way it could possibly get anywhere close is if it was to be masquerading as a scheduled flight that was expected at a certain airport. For such, its livery must be repainted, its electronics be rearranged and heavens knows what else. Say two weeks if you worked fast? Plus the problem of refueling in a very remote neck of the woods. This would need 45,000 gallons of fuel to refuel to the max, that is equivalent of at least ten large home heating fuel trucks! Somewhat noticeable in most locations with the exception of a nice desert or uninhabited island.
!0. This is a mighty lot of time effort and money providing the infrastructure to facilitate this happening and event. Would you really want to waste it all on ploughing the plane into some measly building and killing a few thousand people. I wouldn’t. I would pack it with a dirty bomb and put it straight back into the newly rebuilt World Trade Centre as the ultimate statement that it could be repeated at will.
11. Were I in charge I would have every 777 that traverses Asia to the Americas that reports any trouble or misses any communication with the ground for however long, diverted! What is to stop a mid air substitution of one 777 for another? Not a lot that I can see. I would also be giving close scrutiny to the hard stony desert areas of the ‘stans. I would also give very beady attention to the goings on at a certain religious centre near the World Trade Building site.
12. Meanwhile, place your bets as to where that plane is, my choice is the stone desert area of Turkmenistan.
Boadicea's Chariot 
Well thought out Christina.
My only problem is with your # 11. As far as I’m aware the ‘engine’ ping system is specific to individual planes – I could, of course, be wrong – since it is designed to tell the manufacturers the working state of that particular engine.
I’m quite sure that if the high-jacked engine starts up any where in the world, the manufacturers will know and recognise the machine.
Of course, we haven’t been told whether the ‘ping’ can be stopped – but then we are only getting fed drips of information at a painfully slow rate.
As conspiracy theories go one of the better ones 🙂
There is a further theory that the Yanks know where it is, that they can’t divulge the info ’cause it will let the Ruskies and Chinese know the extent of their spy / tracking technology.
And that if this plane starts up again, The Pentagon will be the first to know!
Personally, I think that the plane is in the ocean.
Quite Bo, the electronics would have to be rearranged to match the specs and identity of the putative second plane to be hijacked for substitution. I gather the ping can be stopped but only from the outside of the cabin, so not possible in mid flight!
Soutie, ocean? Spoilsport!
Christina, a nice analysis. The latest idea I heard was that the plane may have been flown into the airspace of a ‘compliant’ country. My own bet is it’s being used for spare parts by a bankrupt gubmint in the region!
Mrs O,
I think your #7 is the nub of this. Why hijack a plane in total silence? There is a lot more going on here than we are being led to believe. I suspect that in the interests of “national security” of several nations, data recorded has not been released as it would reveal too much information as to the location and nature of each nations international monitoring arrangements, especially if releasing the data showed the possibility of the monitoring of so called “friendly” states.
Hi Christina, a very good analysis and one which seems very plausible although no-one in the news seems to be making such suggestions. Like jhleck, I think the #7 is a key point. One idea could be simply that someone somewhere has figured out how to achieve this ‘disappearance’ of a plane. They possibly do not need to do anything with it. Imagine what would happen to the aerospace/airline/travel industries if another one disappears soon.
Gaz, I reckon it’s quite likely that the US/NATO surveillance systems can already pinpoint it but need to get their assets (!) on the ground before revealing where. Look out for big news soon, I think.
I just hope the news item is pouncing on the location and not a scenario such as 10.
It strikes me that the West is being sclerotically slow as usual.
After all, 9/11 shouldn’t have happened had they followed their leads.
The Boston marathon bombing too, they never acted upon Prussian info given weeks earlier.
Hello Mrs. O. Nice summary but too little real evidence available to form a conclusion IMHO. The stolen passport holders seem to be terroristic lightweights, and presumably every one else on the plane has been scrutinized. A friend in the flying business strongly believes complicity by one or both pilots. The three waypoints were flown with some precision (if not much logic). I’m with Soutie, it’s probably down in the sea and in the Southerly direction (the Northern route is riddled with military radar stations).
I think Bearsy once wrote this in an old post, but I was somewhat dismayed to see that all Air Traffic Control is now using only secondary radar, with the transponders turned off the plane simply vanishes from their screens. Only military radar systems can track it when passive.
LW, Of course no real evidence!
Now what do you expect when planting beetroot and chard in plugs?
Mind you, the name of the chard is ‘Bright Lights’ the multicoloured stem variety!!
Very interesting about the radar especially when several of the countries to the north admit to turning off their military radar because of cost. So, no effective cover at all.
“…What is to stop a mid air substitution of one 777 for another?…”
No quite so simple. You’d have to simultaneously turn off one aircraft’s transponder whilst substituting the correct codes to the ‘pirate ship’ which would have to be in the same location and altitude. Not easy.
Yes Jazz, took that on board but reckoned anyone that was sufficiently clever to abstract that plane was probably sufficiently clued up to achieve the second act. What you would have to do is hijack no 2 plane go off air and communication systems for a few minutes then come back on with the other plane saying panic averted with a sufficiently good story to get you flying for another 10-12 hours, that is all you need to get to the destination.
What might not pass muster in the West with air traffic control may well pass in somewhere like Bangladesh!
Makes a good film script anyway!
I bow to your superior knowledge.
🙂
OK I’m changing my bet, Somalia is now my new choice of destination.
Sightings over Malaysia and the Maldives gives a nice trajectory to Southern Somalia.
I have just been sent this by a friend of mine.
“Not sure if all or any of you are still interested, but here is a version of the same theory with more tech detail… \
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-300.html#post8387054
Of course, there are HUUUGE vested interests involved… if this is a “nutty pilot commits suicide” story the cost will be born by airline training and line management departments. If it’s a “loony fundos steal plane and screw up” story, the cost will be carried by security and intelligence departments and communities. (ie in both these cases, ultimately by us, the travelling public).
If, however, there was (another) 777 electronics bay fire – remember Egyptair on the ground at Cairo a couple of years ago – it will be Boeing that carries the can. And after the PR fiasco of deciding to let the 787 be flight tested by its launch customers, Boeing will go bust if their cash-cow 777 turns out to be prone to spontaneous in-flight ignition…
Here’s the Boeing share price ticker for the past month. Big drop 12 days ago when MH370 disappeared. Back up again when the suicidal pilot/loony fundo theories took hold. Starting to drop away again now….
Follow the money. If Boeing stock price goes off a cliff, we’ll know the “fire/incapacitation/flight to oblivion” theory is the one.”
I like the electrical fire theory. It explains the lack of communications and erratic flight path.
I like the conspiracy theory that they (for USA read Boeing) are covering up the probablity of technical malfunction to save their financial a*ses. That also explains why the USA isn’t all over the news briefings with possible scenarios – because one day all will be revealed and they don’t fancy being caught in a lie.
The latest news from Oz – if true – means the plane just flew south until it stopped in mid-ocean. Sad.
Janus: A bad place in the ocean to search, must be close to the limit of range for an Orion aircraft out of Perth. Somewhere close to where Pete Goss rescued Raphael Dinelli in the 1996 Vende Globe.