So much for Global Warming?

Much ado in the blogosphere over three papers from impeccable sources which show that it is likely that our Sun is about to enter a prolonged period of severely reduced activity.  The last time the same conditions were present was at the time of the Maunder Minimum which coincided with the Little Ice Age.  During this time, the growing season in Europe was 15 – 20 percent shorter; the Great Frost caused famine across Europe and particularly in Ireland and reduced resistance to disease helped the spread of the Black Death and amplified the effects of the influenza epidemic in the mid 16th Century.  (An interesting aside; cold, damp conditions are ideal for the spread of ergot, which may have contributed to the witch-hunt explosion during the period.)

The weather was bad too; during the LIA, there was a high frequency of storms.  Cooler air moving southward strengthened the polar jet stream, causing a higher number of storms – at least four sea floods of the Dutch and German coasts in the thirteenth century were reported to have caused the loss of around 100,000 lives and storms that caused greater than 100,000 deaths were also reported in 1421, 1446, and 1570.  Large hailstorms caused by very cold air at high altitudes  during the warmer months caused sever damage to farmland and killed great numbers of livestock all over Europe.  Similar conditions were prevelant during the Sporer, Dalton and Wolf minima.

Unlike the hype and propaganda put out by the AGW advocates, based on models and flaky statistics, all of this is historical record and the predictions of much reduced solar activity are based on 13 years of careful, empirical observations.  it should also be noted that the scientists who produced these results did not make any wild-assed predictions, simply pointed out the data and noted that, ‘…if we are right…’

9 thoughts on “So much for Global Warming?”

  1. Both Bearsy and I remember very clearly reading in the 60s that a mini ice age was on the way – based on historical – not hysterical – data.

    As a point of interest, I have been listening to some extremely interesting historical programs on the BBC – some about ‘lost civilisations”. It seems that the ‘in’ theory for the cause of the lost civilisations in the Americas, the Indus Valley, and elsewhere is ‘Climate Change’….

    I can’t recall one pre-industrial civilisation that used electricity, or drove cars, etc or did any of the things that we are told causes ‘climate change’… Can anyone else?

    PS – Hurray! At least these theories are being reported!

    🙂

  2. The most eye catching bit of this post, tome, is the line you put in brackets
    “(An interesting aside; cold, damp conditions are ideal for the spread of ergot, which may have contributed to the witch-hunt explosion during the period.)” – which led me on a bit of a trail, but I found this on good old Wiki

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_and_psychological_explanations_of_bewitchment
    Ergot poisoning
    Claviceps purpurea

    A widely-known theory about the cause of the reported afflictions attributes the cause to the ingestion of bread that had been made from rye grain that had been infected by a fungus, Claviceps purpurea, commonly known as ergot. This fungus contains chemicals similar to those used in the synthetic psychedelic drug LSD. Convulsive ergotism causes a variety of symptoms, including nervous dysfunction.

    The theory was first widely publicized in 1976, when graduate student Linnda R. Caporael published an article in Science magazine, making the claim that the hallucinations of the afflicted girls could possibly have been the result of ingesting rye bread that had been made with moldy grain. “Ergot of Rye” is a plant disease caused by the fungus Claviceps purpurea. which Caporael claims is consistent with many of the physical symptoms of those alleged to be afflicted by witchcraft.

    Within seven months, however, an article disagreeing with this theory was published in the same journal by Spanos and Gottlieb. They performed a wider assessment of the historical records, examining all the symptoms reported by those claiming affliction, among other things, that 1) ergot poisoning has additional symptoms that were not reported by those claiming afflicting, 2) if the poison was in the food supply, symptoms would have occurred on a house-by-house basis not in only certain individuals, and 3) biological symptoms do not start and stop based on external cues, as described by witnesses, nor do biological symptoms start and stop simultaneously across a group of people, also as described by witnesses.

    In 1989, Mary Matossian reopened the issue, supporting Caporeal, including putting an image of ergot-infected rye on the cover of her book, Poisons of the Past. Matossian disagreed with Spanos and Gottlieb, based on evidence from Boyer and Nissenbaum in Salem Possessed that indicated a geographical constraint to the reports of affliction within Salem Village.

  3. I feel there is little doubt that the human have contributed to climate changes on this planet, but in the light of the sun’s intensity reducing, our effects are more minimal.

    However, I strongly believe we should be taking care of our planet and that the emphasis on ‘global warming’ in reporting of climate change and over consumption of resources can be misleading and put folk in the wrong frame of mind, leading to an instant recounting, for example of the fact that the weather for the last two winters in our part of the world was much colder, so – ‘so much for global warming.’

    Of more concern to me is the way our civilisations are blindly using up the non-renewable forms of fuel, the centuries old water resources and littering the planet with problems for the future.

    One of the key problems is that there are too many of us. Far too many of us: and yet even recently countries such as France have been encouraging more women to have babies, with various financial rewards.

    Have any of you watched any of the Andrew Marr programmes on TV about our cities? I haven’t seen much, but did see part of one when he was in Japan, showing how far the city way of life has moved away from a natural way of living which feels, in the heart of me to be SO wrong.

  4. I think one of the most sensible proposals made recently was to study the large number of Royal Navy logbooks in the archives. Details of weather in all parts of the world over hundreds of years were recorded as a matter of course. These could have shown that variations occurred at regular intervals.

    Pseu, the French government is encouraging French women to have more children to counteract the increasing number of immigrants’ offspring.

  5. I am a AGW denier – and proud of it! There are historical and geological records to show that the earth has been subject to variations of climate since time immemorial. Those variations have nothing, in my view, to do with humans but with factors outside humanity’s control.

    That does not mean to say that I don’t think we should look after this limited space – Earth. It annoys me intensely that the two issues of AGW and sensible care for the planet have become inextricably linked, so that when I deny AGW I’m accused of being in favour of the over-use of resources. The sooner these two issues are separated – the better.

    Sheona, it is not only the French Government that is encouraging women to have children – it is every Government. I do not believe that it is to counteract the increasing numbers of immigrants’ offspring. Cut the grants, cut all subsidies like free education, etc – and every one, including immigrants, will cut the numbers of their children.

    I blame Big Business, with their demands for ever increasing ‘growth’. The belief that economies can continue to ‘grow’ requires ever more numbers of consumers and workers – and, needless to say, the more workers the lower the outlay on wages.

    There is a move here in Oz to increase the population to a ridiculous figure in the next forty or so years – fortunately those who understand the land better than Governments and their pals, Big Business, are making loud noises about how the land simply can not support that number of people… let’s hope that the right people listen.

    We have to start encouraging the idea of ‘sustainability’ and ‘stability’ – and see that ‘growth’ at the expense of the future resources of the planet is not a worthy objective.

    I doubt that World Governments will be so enlightened.

  6. “That does not mean to say that I don’t think we should look after this limited space – Earth. It annoys me intensely that the two issues of AGW and sensible care for the planet have become inextricably linked, so that when I deny AGW I’m accused of being in favour of the over-use of resources. The sooner these two issues are separated – the better.”
    Exactly, Boadicea

  7. Sheona, “… the French government is encouraging French women to have more children to counteract the increasing number of immigrants’ offspring.” – bonkers, isn’t it?

  8. I’m really glad we have all these efficient wind farms that will keep the power going when the temperature drops to minus whatever and the gales are rattling the roof tiles. 😦

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