Kim Jong-il has finally died. He will truly not be mourned, at least by those who knew who he really was. What is remarkable is that he lived as long as he did, considering how sickly he had been. It’s tempting to celebrate the passing of another tyrant, though things in North Korea are as ever unpredictable and we may come to long for the predictable, though constrained bellicosity that marked his reign. It sounds strange, but there’s something to that. Kim Jong-il was much more willing to take risks, risks that threatened the very existence of North Korea — something which his father, Kim Il-sung, never would have done. His son, Jim Jong-un, promises to be even more unpredictable, insane than his father.
China, perhaps not surprisingly, is not likely to do anything other than attempt to prevent a humanitarian disaster on its border. It’s difficult enough to ascertain who is living legally near the border and who isn’t. Koreans are one of China’s 56 recognised ethnic minorities and form a notable part of the population in Manchuria, something originating in the imperfect nature of political borders.
South Korea, unsurprisingly, is also concerned about what will happen now. Unlike China, they do care about what happens — and not just because of the risk of a great humanitarian crisis when the North collapses. South Korea, though affluent, does not have the resources to build North Korea up. There is also the recognition that generations of separation, especially one as complete as that of the Koreas, creates a situation in which the two sides simply cannot just pick up and continue. They have observed Germany and have decided not to follow in Germany’s footsteps. Even after 20 years of reunification there is still an invisible border which marks two radically different societies, two radically different levels of employment, two radically different rates of economic development. If Germany couldn’t manage it properly, even with a largely functional east, then how could Korea do it with a completely dysfunctional north?
Whatever it is, things will get very interesting in the months and years to come. Watch this space in mid-March for posts from Seoul.
Boadicea's Chariot 
Hello Christopher.
The one report I read said heart attack, another said stroke, here’s hoping it’s a stroke of luck for the people of North Korea and a change of fortune.
I can’t help but think of the last dictator’s son, groomed for succession that I read about, now rotting away in a jail in Libya.
It could be very interesting, but a little scary, Christopher.
I will be watching this space Christopher.
I wonder how easily the ‘heir’ will be able to impose his will on country. He seems a little young, and I have no doubt that there are plenty of people around looking to step into his shoes.