This blog will be short. It is not because I am too lazy to write more, well, at least not only because of that; but because it is late and I have to work on a paper for a course.
There has been much discussion recently about the relative decline of the USA’s position in the world. In the past 20 years the USA went from the unrivalled hyper-power left standing after the end of the Cold War to a deeply indebted state unable to find competent leadership with unfriendly countries quickly losing patience with its profligate ways. There should be nothing especially surprising in this. It cannot be expected that a country can rely on sheer luck alone, as the USA has in effect often done in its history, to carry it through forever. It is equally impractical to ignore the sage wisdom of the fragrant Chinese Legalist scholar Han Fei Tzu when he wrote “no state is forever strong, no state is forever weak” before falling victim to one of the schemes he so enjoyed advocating.
Residing as I do in a city which is uniquely positioned in the world — a city which will, if demographic trends hold, before too terribly long have an Asian majority population and a rather notable number of East Asian students, most with intentions of returning to their native countries, I feel comfortable in discussing what could come. The USA had the potential to be a strong country for the foreseeable future. Previous leadership in the House of Representatives and a former president shrewd enough not to get in the way of too many decent ideas left the USA with a budget surplus and an economy which, while there were major problems starting to fester beneath the surface, in a position where it could without too much difficult face the world in a strong position and deal with its problems with relative ease.
Instead the world changed and leadership was not what it should have, could have been. The surplus disappeared and the old order started to change. The monstrosity that is the European Union, rather than proving to be a unified hyper-power ally would prove to be a disaster, a mess of epic proportions. Unity would give way to acrimony as soon as serious problems emerged. On top of that the most important of countries, Germany, would prove to have at times a government more sympathetic with Russia than with the USA. France, of course, does not know what it wants and will chase any goal so long as it can glorify itself in the process. (I will have to retract my comment on France not knowing what it wants. Rather, it knows what it wants but cannot fathom that actions do have consequences — shades of Louis XIV not lifting a finger to help Austria when the Turks were craving the opportunity to sack Vienna or Napoleon attempting to unify a continent by force under French leadership, perhaps?)
Rather than being pacified, China has proven to be rather more prickly and assertive than the USA thought it would be. Russia, as it would come to pass, was in fact more than just a “glorified petrol station” to quote Forbes Magazine. Moreover, erstwhile, albeit weakened, allies such as the United Kingdom would find it more difficult to do the bidding of the United States to its liking. Perhaps it is like abusing a spouse and then wondering (s)he eventually tires physically, spiritually, and emotionally.
So what will the future hold? It is difficult to say, really, though in any case it will not be what the greatest (defective) minds say. My opinion is that there world will, at least, be truly multi-polar with a number of strong states but no unquestioned hyper-power.
Boadicea's Chariot 
G’morgen, Chris. History would expect a clash of the Titans, which is starting to happen on the economic front. Nationalism, as ever, takes over when times are tough – so Europe is once more at loggerheads with itself. My expectation is that China’s political and economic complexion will change as its people demand more freedom but other big players will continue to hold several cards which China can’t ignore – like oil and gas. No, like you, I don’t see a dominant state emerging.
Christopher
“…and leadership was not what it should have, could have been. ..”
I’m afraid there’s a lot of it about.
Let’s hope that there is no ‘unquestioned hyper-power’ – I tend to think it extremely dangerous that one nation can determine how the rest of the world should act.
I think the danger lies not so much in China becoming a hyper power but in Islam becoming a hyper religion. But perhaps that subject has been over done.
Sipu
Good point. The current danger is religious or political dogma rather than Nationalism.
Mind as a BNP member I would say that.
Extremist movements tend to collapse in on themselves. Extremist religious movements as well. This is especially the case when the promised rewards simply do not materialise.